![]() For example, global climate change can interact with local land-use activities to control how an ecosystem changes over the next decades. Macrosystems ecology is the study of ecological dynamics at multiple interacting spatial and temporal scales (e.g., Heffernan et al. Why macrosystems ecology and ecological forecasting? Activity C: Students quantify and partition the uncertainty for their forecasts with different models and compare uncertainty across lake sites.Activity B: Students generate multiple forecasts of water temperature with different sources of uncertainty and examine how uncertainty propagation differs. ![]() Activity A: Students build different models to simulate water temperature for their chosen NEON site.A student handout describing Activities A, B, and C, and an instructor PowerPoint are also provided. ![]() See the instructor manual, provided below, for a step-by-step guide for carrying out this module. Quick overview of the activities in this module Used this activity? Share your experiences and modifications There are a number of approaches that forecasters can use to reduce uncertainty, which will be explored in this module. Ecological forecasters develop and update forecasts using the iterative forecasting cycle, in which they make a hypothesis of how an ecological system works embed their hypothesis in a model and use the model to make a forecast of future conditions and quantify forecast uncertainty. Knowing the uncertainty associated with a forecast enables forecast users to evaluate the forecast and make more informed decisions. Forecast uncertainty is derived from multiple sources, including model parameters and driver data, among others. Ecological forecasting is an emerging approach which provides an estimate of the future state of an ecological system with uncertainty, allowing society to prepare for changes in important ecosystem services. Ecological forecasting is a tool that can be used for understanding and predicting changes in populations, communities, and ecosystems.
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